Sources of intermittent demand for aircraft spare parts within airline operations

Sources of intermittent demand for aircraft spare parts within airline operations

Journal: Air Transport Management

Author: A.A. Ghobbar, C.H. Friend

Published: 2002

Abstract

Owing to the sporadic nature of demand for aircraft maintenance repair parts, airline operators perceive difficulties in parts demand forecasting.In this paper we investigate the sources of demand lumpiness, as a function of flying hours, that may affect the parts demand rate.Experimental results of demand lumpiness, measured by the square coefficient of variation (CV2) and the average inter-demand interval (ADI), are examined and clarified through statistical analysis.The general linear model approach is used to explain the variation attributable to the various experimental factors and their interactions.Actual historical data for hard-time and condition-monitoring components from an airlines operator are used.This study shows that aircraft utilization rate can be a major source of lumpiness since it increases and decreases the square coefficient of variation and the average inter-demand interval respectively for the observed demand.This assumes a strictly linear relationship between demand and flying hours/landings.

Keywords: Aircraft parts inventory; Forecasting; Intermittent demand

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