Detecting periodic patterns of arrival delay

Detecting periodic patterns of arrival delay

Journal: Air Transport Management

Author: Mohamed Abdel-Aty, Chris Lee, Yuqiong Bai, Xin Li, Martin Michalak

Published: 2007

Abstract

This study identifies the periodic patterns of arrival delay for non-stop domestic flights at the Orlando International Airport during 2002–2003. Cyclic variations in air travel demand and weather at the airport were observed and their consequent effects on flight delay were investigated. This study detected the frequencies of any regularly repeating delay patterns and then identified the factors associated with the detected frequencies of delay. These sequential tasks called the ‘‘two-stage approach’’ were performed using a mathematical frequency analysis and statistical analysis techniques. The results of the frequency analysis showed that arrival delay displayed daily, weekly and seasonal patterns of variation. The results of the statistical analysis showed that time of day, day of week, season, flight distance, precipitation at MCO and scheduled time intervals between successive flights were significantly correlated with arrival delay.

Keywords: Flight delays; Periodicity; Frequency analysis; Airport operations

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