Carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation: 1950-2050

Carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation: 1950-2050

Journal: Air Transport Management

Author: Xander Olsthoorn

Published: 2001

Abstract

CO2 emissions from international aviation are important since they are beyond the scope of control of the Kyoto agreement. A statistical time-series (29 year) analysis yielded a significant relation between the sales of bunker jet fuel, world crude oil prices and global gross domestic product (GDP). The model allows the calculation of future emissions. The required model inputs (forecasts for global GDP and world oil price) are taken from global economic scenarios. Between 1995 and 2050, emissions of CO2 may increase by a factor 3-6. These results are similar to earlier scenarios obtained with entirely different methodologies.

Keywords: CO2 emissions; Long-term scenarios; International aviation; Price elasticity

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