Gravity models for airline passenger volume estimation

Gravity models for airline passenger volume estimation

Journal: Air Transport Management

Author: Tobias Grosche, Franz Rothlauf, Armin Heinzl

Published: 2007

Abstract

This paper presents two gravity models for the estimation of air passenger volume between city-pairs. The models include variables describing the general economic activity and geographical characteristics of city-pairs instead of variables describing air service characteristics. Thus, both models can be applied to city-pairs where currently no air service is established, historical data is not available, or for which factors describing the current service level of air transportation are not accessible or accurately predictable. One model is limited to city-pairs with airports not subject to competition from airports in the vicinity, while the other model includes all city-pairs. Booking data of flights between Germany and 28 European countries is used for calibration. Both models show a good fit to the observed data and are statistically tested and validated.

Keywords: Passenger volume estimation; Gravity model; Forecasting

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